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Likviditetsstrategi advanced with 0.64% during February. Since year-end, the NAV per share has consequently increased by 1.93%. Hopes of further falling market interest rates met setbacks in February in the wake of increased concerns about more persistent inflation. Short term interest rates are now considerably much higher than the longer ones which is usually seen as a reliable indicator of looming recession. However, the economy in both the US and Europe has proved more resilient than many expected, which also keeps up inflation expectations and interest rates.
As far as Sweden is concerned, it looks tougher with alarmingly high inflation (ex energy) which shows no signs of plateauing yet. With high private indebtedness and a large proportion of variable mortgages, we must prepare for worse growth figures in Sweden than in many other countries.
Overall, the market continues to push the interest rate peak higher and further ahead. In the US, the interest rate peak has been moved up to July and is expected at the time of writing to land at 5.5 percent, while the peak in Europe is expected to land at 3.75 percent.
Despite higher market interest rates, risky assets held up reasonably well during the month. Credit spreads, which previously moved in tandem with market interest rates, were generally stable, which could be seen as a sign that fears of an impending recession in the US and Europe are beginning to subside.
The month's largest contributor was Storskogen, which came with a strong quarterly report containing both good organic growth and a strong cash flow. In addition, caution was communicated with acquisitions in the near term and an ambition to gradually reduce indebtedness, which is positive from a credit perspective.
Bonds from real estate companies generally developed strongly with good yield contributions from, among others, Heimstaden AB and Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden, whose year-end reports were well received by the market. SBB reported weaker figures overall, which was in line with expectations. At the same time, further possible measures to reduce the company's indebtedness were presented. Together with the property sales that were made during the fall, which have not yet had full effect, the company is expected to continue to meet the requirements for a maintained credit rating in the coming months. Falling asset values aside, Heimstaden Bostad showed relatively stable key figures. In addition, a new share issue was announced where existing owners support the company with new capital in order to buy back bonds and reduce outstanding debt.
Positive contributions were also received from the (re)insurance company SiriusPoint after the company reported an improvement in earnings during the fourth quarter. The company's strategic restructuring with less exposure to reinsurance risk continues, which is expected to lead to more stable profit development in the coming years.
The negative impact on the result was mainly seen from covered bonds as a result of rising market interest rates.
Portfolio Manager of Coeli Likviditetsstrategi
Portfolio Manager of Coeli Likviditetsstrategi
| Inception Date | 2010-05-01 |
| Management Fee | 0 % |
| Performance Fee | Yes |
| Risk category | 2 of 7 |
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Before making any final investment decisions, please refer to the prospectus of Coeli SICAV I, its Annual Report, and the KID of the relevant Sub-Fund. Relevant information documents are available in English at coeli.com. A summary of investor rights will be available at https://coeli.com/regulatory-information-coeli-asset-management-ab/.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The price of the investment may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount originally invested.